Thursday, December 4, 2014

Illinois corn yields set prices?

 More than Illinois it's the world

 We have finished with corn harvest with good yields.  Most of the corn went into storage that was built on the farm or contracted storage with local elevators.  Some needed to be delivered out of the field straight to market.  Users of corn are confident that supplies will be plentiful for this year and most likely for several more.  While some are buying at favorable prices there seems to be no hurry to buy needs further out.

Yes Illinois yields have increased supply which lowers prices.  There are also other huge factors now that were beyond the farmers control.

1.  The dollar is 10% higher now in the world market which means the overseas buyers get 10% less corn for the money.

2. Oil producing nations (OPEC) have decided to increase supplies of oil which lowered the gasoline prices.  Lower gas prices mean less ethanol blended into gas and less corn bought to produce that ethanol.

3.  The Beef herds have still not recovered from drought forced liquidation and are consuming less corn for feed.

Grain production has had some good profits for several years but the near-term outlook is worrisome to most.  The livestock producers went through the opposite.  High corn prices led to losses of all profit and now lower feed costs are providing the return to profitability.  I was amazed at how much efficiency increased in pork production when things were bad.  I call it forced efficiency.  Farmers were forced to take another look at everything they do to survive the market.  I see this happening in grain production now.  With no way to control grain prices, limited control of land costs, seeds, and other inputs more farmers will look at sharing their resources of time and equipment to maximize efficiency.    

                                                                                  Serving together, Dean  

Thursday, November 20, 2014

end of the season, another starts

corn harvested, tillage done, and ready for 2015

Seems that the last two years ended early with cold temperatures stopping fieldwork in a matter of days.  The ground is froze 6-8 inches deep so if tillage is not complete the farmer may have another chance if the rain and 40 degree temps forecast come true.  I did get everything finished so this is what it looks like now.  Some cornstalk residue is remaining that will break down over the winter and spring.  Lime was spread to correct the ph of the soil, and fertilizer applied to replace what was used by this crop plus a little more.
   It is undecided at this time if the field will be in corn or soybeans next year.  I have orders placed for next years seed but still need to book more so time will be spent going over harvest results on my farm and some test locations that give me comparisons.  There has been a soybean variety that has done well for me and was my best bean again this year but it is no longer in production.  I will be paying extra attention on what will replace it on the majority of my acres.
  Corn or soybeans?  If nitrogen fertilizer prices drop It looks like corn would have an advantage.  Production capabilities and petroleum price show some promise of a decline but will it happen needs some more time.  Demand for soybean meal has driven the prices for soybeans and this spring will tell me what the markets are encouraging, corn or beans. I may be making my decision as late as possible so am glad that all of my fields are prepared for spring either way.
   My yields were less that projected but we have been blessed with what we have been given.

                                                              Serving together,  Dean  

Sunday, November 16, 2014

Comforts of home

Field work progressing

We had some rain delays the week of October 13th but since then it has been full throttle.  The area had little corn left and soybeans done.  Tillage is going well up to now but with temperatures below freezing at night the ground will begin to freeze to the point that tractors will have to wait as day temps thaw the upper layer. Forecasts are for warmer next week and expect to see a lot of field activity at night  because we know winter is around the corner.  Lots of tractor seat hours but with the comforts of home.
 I bought a 1 1/2 quart crock pot and a power converter so I have been feasting on hot Jambalaya, Stew, Pulled pork (of course), and Taco Bowl.  Warning soup splashes too much when tractor hits a bump or stops.


                                                                                                      Serving together, Dean

Sunday, November 2, 2014

Good fences make good neighbors?

 I remember "Mending Wall" by Robert Frost.  The fence is serving as a line between two neighbors and they work together to maintain this joint benefit.  In that time period they were stone.  Most likely gathered each spring from the adjacent field making room for cultivation and crops.
 With progress became wire fences and no more lifting of rocks.  These were also serving as a property line but each farmer was responsible for only the right half of the line as facing the neighbors so they worked making and repairing by themselves.
 Today we need the line but because fields contain grain and not animals it can look much different.
Can you see the fence?
It is on software in the tractor cab the pink line shows GPS line between two farmers.  By the naked eye there is only a slight difference in color because the one on the right of tractor had time to dry for a day after tillage, the top 1/3 as a diagonal line. Most fences as we have known then are not needed and are being removed.  * The blue color is the path this tractor has made tilling the field.

Good "fences" still make good neighbors but it can be a pink line.

                                                                 Serving Together, Dean  

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Join us this weekend

Please join us this weekend at the Dau farm.  2334 N 42nd road Sheridan.  October 18th 10:00 am

Truly there is nothing like it.  We start with worship representing 25 churches of many denominations.  Share music, food, and friendship.  We entertain and educate with activities for old and young alike.  And our goal is to raise awareness of world hunger and raise $70,000 this year for designated world hunger projects.  If you have enjoyed my blogging about the crops stop by where we are cooking the pork and say hello I like to hear what you want me to cover for the next year.  Ask for the cooks special and chat with us.
 You can see we will not run out of pork sandwiches.  Make sure you reserve a bag to take home.

                                                                                                      Serving together,  Dean

Sunday, October 5, 2014

4th grade science

 Remember studying photosynthesis?

   Below is a chart of normal cloudy or sunny days for northern Illinois.  from my posts you have seen how fast the corn is growing in May, June, and July.  We get enough rain to accommodate this especially this year.  It takes water and sun to build the healthy plant.  The next stage occurs in last half of July continuing into August and September.  That is when the grain is developing.  The plant is fully developed so not as much moisture is needed but the amount of sunshine is critical for the leaves to convert this energy into grain.
   Normally September is our sunniest month which makes this area ideal for corn production.  However this year turned out to be slightly cooler and cloudier than normal.  As a result the grain did not get as much energy to fill with starch.  Because of this each kernel weighs less.  Although we have a lot of kernels the combined weight of a bushel is less.  Less lbs per bushel equals less yield per acre.  So the first reports of harvest in my area are a little disappointing.  When we were scouting the assumption was for normal weights with this correction yield estimates would be up to 10% less than expected.
 
 




                                                                                   Serving together, Dean

Sunday, September 28, 2014

sharpen those pencils

The difference between $5.50 and $3.50 corn

     Farmers are looking a much lower prices this fall and probably for the next 3 years.  Production has made up for the shortfall in 2012 and now a surplus of grain exists worldwide.  There were several things that farmers were doing when corn was over $5.00 per bushel to get that extra yield.  Now with the prospects of $3-$4 dollar corn not all of these will create an economic return.  On my farm I was spending $22.50 for a aerial fungicide and $22.50 for starter fertilizer put on at planting. If those got me an extra 8 bushels at $5.55 per bushel I had a return on investment.  Now the same investment would need to return 13 Bushels if the price per bushel was $3.50.  As you see response needs to be much higher to make up for lower prices.  I have already decided that those probably will not work for me in the 2015 crop year.  The next thing I will be looking at is my seed cost and especially "traits".  There is an extra cost for different levels of insect resistance and herbicide tolerances in corn hybrids.  Is it cheaper to apply insecticides or get that protection from the plant?  To determine this I will be looking at yield results and seed costs for each hybrid.  Most of this information will not be available until next month and my decision will be soon after that.
    On the bright side the last few weeks has let the corn dry faster in the field than I thought it wood.  Expect to see harvest progress and use caution when you see farm equipment on the roadways.  They are traveling at a much lower speed and at times cannot see what is right behind them.  Be safe and slow down.  Every year I see a car that forgets common sense.

                                                                                                 Serving together, Dean

Saturday, September 20, 2014

What we are about

Sharing our Blessings

Harvest:                                              Corn near harvest
maturity line at 80% 


Ten days ago corn maturity line was 50% Great progression considering cool weather

We will be heading to the fields soon this corn was planted on April 22nd and has experienced good weather although cool all summer.  I am pleased on the dry down this week and know that while still to wet to begin another 10 days will get me to harvestable moisture.  A portion of this field is pledged to our local FRB growing project and it will be harvested prior to the Harvest Celebration on Oct. 18th.  40 farmers have combined to donate some of their harvest to this group.  

Celebrate:
   The Farmers will join members of 25 churches that share our goals of alleviating world hunger.
Together we will worship, pray, eat, socialize, renew friendships, and make new friends.  Oh! we will also raise awareness of world hunger and about $70,000.  We then send 100% of these funds to overseas projects that work in communities uplifting them, helping them, and getting them to self sufficiency.  They in turn help others by teaching what worked for them and what they learned.

   Please be part of us.  Visit the FRB site to see if there is a project in your area that you can become a participant of.   http://www.foodsresourcebank.org/   or join us on the 18th.

*   Interesting fact:  It costs 13 cents to move my corn to the river. $1.12 to barge it to the Gulf, and $1.23 to ship it to China for a total of $2.48 


                                                                                Serving together, Dean

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Checking corn maturity

Corn maturity as marked by "milk line"
I have marked where the kernel changes from a more liquid stage or "milk line" to the more solid stage of starch on the right side of the ear shown.  Maturity on this one in 1/2 Milk Line and will move towards the cob as heat units accumulate.  In approximately 2 weeks this will complete the process and a membrane layer will form at the base of the kernel that will later allow the separation from the kernel form the cob.  This membrane is black.  So if you hear us farmers talk about "Black Layer" it means maturity.  From this point on yield does not increase but moisture levels continue to drop.  Black layer is over 30% moisture and safe storage levels are 15% moisture.  The decision will be made to harvest and dry the grain or wait for corn to dry and then harvest. But you can expect to see harvest to begin soon.

Ear showing full dent


This is the same ear sometimes called full dent as each kernel is dented which is an indicator of starch shrinking as moisture leaves.

Can't help but smile

John visited the corn grown for our local FRB project.  This year will be one of the best on record for this field.  Fortunately it can also bring smiles to our overseas project as with every ones help this will be sold and the money sent to aid those farmers become self sufficient.

                                                                                        Serving together, Dean

Sunday, September 7, 2014

One last push to get ready

Harvest is fast approaching.  And there is one last push to make, or make that several.

One push to prepare for the Harvest Celebration Oct 18th at the host farm by our gracious hosts Gary and Jean Dau

Another to have all the committee's line up a fantastic event that will be educational and entertaining

Another by all the farmers making sure that they are prepared for the large harvest while also preparing for next years crop planning

Yet another by the Crop it's self.  The corn really has a challenge to dry down to harvestable moisture levels and the Soybeans need to dodge the increased disease pressure that has arrived thanks to the cool wet weather.

I have over 800 tons of lime delivered for application to the fields this fall prior to tillage.  Dry fertilizer is booked to replace the phosphorus and potassium that this years large crop is to remove, plus an additional amount to build up areas that were below optimum levels. Both of these will be variable rate spread using GPS grids.

Seeds are being booked to get the best pricing available, and other inputs ate getting close attention.
Farmers need to make some projection about income and expenses for the 2015 crop year and many are getting very worried that profits will be hard to achieve at current corn prices and current expenses of land costs and inputs.

I just read an article that farming has the highest suicide rates of any profession.  Let us all remember that God can give us the strength if we can only look to him for guidence.  And also sometimes that guidence is in the form of helping hands or one of us.  Continue to pray for each other and get involved.


                                                           Look forward to seeing everyone Oct 18th
                                                           Serving Together, Dean


Monday, August 25, 2014

US crop conditions

crops look great but how much?

    There is an extensive in field survey taken in August by Pro Farmer each year.  Many fields are visited across the corn belt.  They released their estimate from this data that forecasts 169 bu of corn on 83.24 million acres.  If this is true production will be over 14 billion bu of corn.

Corn: Acreage by Year, US
Chart shows reduction in corn planted acres from last year's record amount.  Between now and next april farmers will be deciding how many acres to plant next year.  Corn is at 50% of the prices from 2012 and the drought reduced crop.  How will that impact 2015 corn acres?

So we are looking at 14 billion bu. from less acres.  Unfavorable weather in the northern corn belt was the major impact on the reduction.  For yields, many producers will have record levels.  If you look at the "eye in the sky" from last post you can see portions of the field yellow.  Where this field shows some there will be other areas that receive too much rain causing nitrogen loss or the inability to do timely field applications.
Corn: Yield by Year, US
Chart showing yield per year.  I know we just reduced the possible top yield because of too much rain but am glad it was not the drought of 2012 that had a severe impact on many more acres.  The phrase rain makes grain will always hold truth even if it is too much rain.

On my farm corn is beginning to  fill kernel size and weight and looks like a possible record crop for me.  The harvest moisture will be higher and increase harvest expense because of the cool summer.  My beans however enjoy the cool summer and because of that also look like they could close in on a record for me.
With harvest approaching please think of the hungry in the world and what we can do for them.   FRB is one way to get involved and share our bounty with the less fortunate.

                                                                                                     Serving together,  Dean

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

an eye in the sky

Look at the new way to scout fields.
a drone 18 inch square but great for a quick look around



I wanted to see how much drainage improvements are needed

Drones have become an easy way to get great pictures anytime in the season.

                                                                                             Serving together, Dean