2013 corn crop outlook

WHAT TO WATCH

   Last year on my June 7th post I covered that we needed to watch the drought monitor and as we all know the conditions declined all year.  This year for the June 15th post my call is to watch for harvested ears per acre. 
   Farmers were giving all they had to meet the goal of 97.3 million acres of corn plantings.  We will fall short of that goal but more important is the fact that many of those acres already planted were under stress from the beginning.  I saw many fields that on a normal year would have been tilled and replanted.  That was impossible this year.  Wet conditions kept the farmer's equipment idle and when a few days opened up he had the choice to plant fields that were not planted yet or start replanting damaged fields.  Of course he would chose to plant in a bare field before destroying a field with something.  These damaged fields range from large ponds of water, compaction from driving rain stopping corn emergence, and reduction from late planting dates. Large ponds of water- if you lose 20 acres in a 120 acre field you get a 16% reduction in plants, or ears per acre as each plant should have an ear. Compaction from rain- compaction or crusting in the topsoil reduced emergence of plants, again less plants = less ears and this is widely variable through out the western and central corn belt but much greater than normal.  Late planting - increases the risk of insect damage and temperatures damaging the silk not allowing pollination to form a viable ear. 
  Watch for July reports beginning to show impacts of these but most will not be known until ear counts begin to show up on August surveys, and even then those counts will be on more immature ears than normal leaving some yield dependent on a late frost allowing for maturity to fill each kernel of corn or not. 

   Again My farm has been extremely fortunate My drive through Iowa to Kansas City and back through Missouri and central Illinois showed that the best crops so far are in Lasalle and Dekalb counties in Illinois.
I did get some light hail damage.  Note the holes mid leaf.



This is the field that is part of the Somonauk area growing project.  Support our cause and follow what will be YOUR ACRE.  I have the latitude longitude on the top so you can Geo locate it and see it anytime.

This field was planted the second week of May which is later than optimal but not to the point that I feel there is yield reduction. Also this picture is 3 days after a 3 inch rain which is the largest since planting and many farmers saw larger amounts and frequently. I thank God for my blessings and pray for the other farmers worldwide to receive the same. 

* note for those linked to this post.  All posts can be found at www.foodresourcebank.blogspot.com

I try to post twice monthly however when crops or conditions change may post more often.

                                                                  Serving together, Dean

USDA report optimistic

June usda 2013 corn production estimate

  Today the USDA projected the corn planted acres to remain at the target of 97.3 million acres.  They did however lower the projected average yield from 158 bu/acre to 156.5.

Two facts seem to be at odds with this projection. First the state of Iowa has been the largest corn producing state for nearly 20 years.  Second north west Iowa has not had much field work for the last three weeks. I just drove through Iowa and have not seen so many failed acres from wet fields ever.  To get back to corn planting will be another week with no rain in some of these fields. That is not the only state with problems but is the best example today.

Prepare to see the June 28th report with changes in both corn and bean acres.  What that will be depends on    
all of the options that I had in my last post on "plant replant or change plants". Please keep these farmers in your prayers as they face these difficult times.


                                                                           Serving together,  Dean Lundeen

Plant Replant or Change Plants?

   Corn acres changing.
      Many fields have been planted in less than ideal conditions, flooded by large rains, or not planted at all.
This leaves the farmer to wonder what is his best option.  With the less than ideal fields he can hope that weather provides enough rain, sunshine and warm weather that the corn outgrows any compaction that is showing now(compaction slows root growth and then limits uptake).  Flooded by rains, he can plant corn into the areas damaged, but at this late date and with those spots still wet prospects are not good.  If those areas are big enough he may chose to plant some beans there instead of corn .  Corn acres not planted he may switch to beans.  The growing season is getting shorter for all of those options so he may decide to grow nothing if things do not change fast.  Fortunately most farmers have some insurance to cover a portion of their expenses in the case he cannot plant.  Ironically there were a record amount of claims from no rain in late summer 2012 and now getting close to greater than normal claims for not being able to plant because of too much rain.
    Watch for reduced corn acre expectations coming, and hope for weather to cooperate for replanting options.
    My corn is looking great and will update more on this next week.

                                                                                              Serving together,  Dean Lundeen

corn belt crop progress

       * Please note that if you are reading a link to this text, more information is available at www.foodresourcebank.blogspot.com  And thank You for your interest.  I update several times a month about agriculture and a hunger project (FRB) from my farm in Illinois.

Crop progress:

     Corn is 87% planted but that does not mean every farmer is 87% done.  The problem is that in some areas the rains have not allowed field work to progress as normal.  That is leaving 10 % of the farmers with significant acres to finish and with more rain falling this week some of them will chose to change to beans in an effort to get the best income.  With forecasts of another hot summer beans may be able to outperform late planted corn that would pollinate in August.  There could be 3-4 million acres included in this shift of plans.
Every year there are areas that suffer from floods, droughts, and other obstacles to farming as planned and I always sympathise with them.  Please keep them in your prayers.
   I have been very lucky. Although planting was delayed by a few weeks I was able to get all of my corn and Soybeans planted and they are now growing and out of the ground looking good.  With this progress I also priced some of my production for delivery this fall at harvest.  I think estimates of this year's production are higher than I think is likely and prices may prove me right by going higher, but these prices give me a projected profit so it was time to get some sales done.  My rain totals have been .6 inches, .6 inches and .5inches with drying days in between but since May 20th have not seen any field work here.  South of our farm rains have been over 5 inches several times and that has stoped all progress in the fields.


                                                      Serving Together, Dean Lundeen
 

Planting crops at record speeds

   We have been delayed from planting due to wet cold soils.  Fortunately the weather changed for the majority of the corn belt and 43% of the corn acres were planted in the past week.  Total corn acres are now at 71% complete with a target of 97 million acres.  With larger and more efficient equipment each farmer can plant more in a hurry than before.  Last year all those acres were planted weeks earlier but the similarity is that with many states planting in such a short time span we are more dependent on favorable weather in the week 43% of the corn is pollinating.  Lets pray that we do not have a repeat of hot and dry conditions then.  Most probable is the week of July 20th.
   Soybeans are just beginning to get in the ground and may get a few acres from intended corn production but not much.
   Forecasts are for some rains this week and with the sunny and windy conditions a rain will be welcome.
   China is buying corn for this fall harvest as crop prospects are not as good as expected for them either.



                                                                      Serving together, Dean Lundeen
 

Time to plant

   Very little corn has been planted so far.  We were way ahead of normal last year but this year has been a waiting game.  Waiting for fields to warm up but mostly waiting for fields to dry.  There are forecasts of more rain almost every day but 30% chances or less.  The next two weeks will be crucial in determining the corn harvest this fall.  Southern areas need to get the corn in the ground and  growing to beat the heat they would expect if pollination is later than normal, and Northern states need to get corn growing to beat any chances of an early frost before corn matures in the fall. Farmers are well equipped to plant in a hurry but need a break in weather.  I still have not heard of any farmers out doing field work buy this week but expect that to begin to change.  We need to get from minimal amounts of planted acres to the goal of  97 million acres in a very short time.  Seems like we need to plant 6.5 million acres per day.  I will keep you posted on the progress as we face this challenge.
   Think of how you can help fight World Hunger.  Some of our churches are asking for sponsors of acres now join us through your church or at http://www.foodsresourcebank.org/.
                                                                                                       Serving together, Dean  

trend line yields for corn

       How fast things change.  As you remember last year the warm dry spring allowed planting to go at record paces and some corn was out of the ground by now.  This year is the opposite with 7 inches of rain falling yesterday and temps of 34 degrees this morning.  I have not heard of any field work done yet.  The March reports were looking for 97.3 million acres of corn planted for 2013 and trend line yields of 163 bushels per acre.  Both are likely to change with recent weather events. ( The later we plant corn it tends to yield less and some acres will be switched to other crops.)
      For the last several years the trend line yields have had a large role in the USDA projections so I would like to show a chart with some comments.

 Corn: Yield by Year, US

First comment is that I had always felt that the two highest yield years were so perfect that it would be hard to repeat.  Thinking that the 163 was a good target to shoot for but on the high side.

Second comment is the most important:  Take a look at where 2012 is on the chart.  This year was the 5th worse drought for the US and yet we got historical average corn yields. Why weren't the yields down to the 70 bushel mark?  Look at these numbers.  1997 - 8% of corn GMO 2005 - 50% and 2012 - 88%

By improving the corn plants to withstand more adverse conditions we were able to provide a respectable amount of corn for the world.  On some of those perfect years there isn't much difference in yield between genetically modified varieties or not but on most years and especially a poor year the billions of dollars in research paid off well.  As the world grows and we need to produce more and produce food in locations with less desirable weather, the continued research improving plants will mean more for world hunger than any other development.

                                                                    Serving together,  Dean

what lies ahead for 2013 corn production.

2013 Corn Outlook:

   Thankfully we are receiving rain, although it has delayed early plantings.  The northern corn belt got snow and soil temperatures are cold, don't expect an early start there.  The southern states  were delayed by spring rain and need to get corn in the ground fast if they want to get it pollinated before summer heat waves arrive.
   Outlooks are still variable on total rainfall expected for the growing year.  Some had said we do not get 2 drought years in a row.  We need to get production back to normal to meet demand and more than one year of a shortage would be a problem.  I saw this chart on the Top Producer magazine.



   It shows that although we haven't got a severe drought two years in a row twice it was only a year in between two severe events.  1934, 1936 and 1954, 1956.  The odds are good that with this spring plantings will have moisture to get things started.  What we need is a whole year of rebuilding rainfall.  Even with that we also need to get corn planted and other conditions to be favorable. 
   USDA reports show expectations of larger acres planted to corn than before, and grain stocks today covering needs.  This has caused a drop in the grain markets.  Chart below.

July 2013 Corn

You can see the large drop in price after the report from $7.30 to $6.30 and the last three days slight recovery as planting is delayed (also wheat conditions are not good ).

Dow Jones Chart. Bellow:

 

 

 

While corn was dropping the Stock Market has had one of it's largest rallies.  I expect that as the year progresses and any adverse weather effects the corn outlook we will get another price increase in the corn futures.  Two things will drive this. 1. weather  and 2. money leaving the stock market and returning to commodities.  Eventually the stock rally will wane and traders will be trying to pick the bottom of the commodity cycle.

   I am holding a little extra corn for feed coverage this year.  Although the grain stocks report shows larger than expected corn storage I am having a very hard time believing it.  Most of the drought hit areas have no on farm grain in storage and Commercial storage at local elevators is at minimal to empty levels.  They have been given no incentive to hold grain as every month the price outlook was lower.  I think the biggest surprise this year will be where is the grain come August.  Inventories out and harvest delayed.

                                                                               Serving Together,  Dean

March 28th 2013 USDA Corn acres

  USDA PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS

 One of the reports markets watch is the upcoming Prospective Plantings Report.  Expect a minimum of 97 million acres of corn planted.  From this number (or the number given on the 28th)  we will attempt to make projections of total production for corn in 2013.  Most reports I am reading show optimism on per acre yields returning to normal driving the harvest prices below $5.00.  Profitability of growing corn at today's prices are encouraging farmers world wide to do all that is possible to meet that demand.  This is increasing the supply in the future.
   Let's assume we are returning to a normal rainfall year.  In a normal year some corn is grown under irrigation, some of those regions have lowered the water table or used their water allocations last year leaving the 2013 crop with less options.  Some corn is grown for food contracts, corn chips, popcorn, and sweet corn.  The companies doing that were hurt by low yields and need to increase acreage in 2013 to replace their supply shortage.  The total corn acres will loose more than normal to both unharvested acres (running out of irrigation) and food , leaving less for feed grains.  With that normal year we will produce a surplus of corn but I think that surplus will be absorbed into increased exports as countries rebuild stocks, ethanol used as oil remains high, and livestock feeding trying to rebuild for 2014 in pork and into 2016 in beef.
  There are more unknowns it would be like choosing the basketball brackets entering rainfall, temperatures, acres planted, acres harvested, feed, ethanol, cotton acres, soybean acres, hail storms, and management.  If all the right ones win then harvested production will be a record amount.  If not I guess that is the upset. You pick your brackets and tell me the outcome in price for corn in October. 


                                                                Serving together, Dean

Be an example of Jesus

   A friend at my Church gave me a hand made cross.  I have hung it on the wall by my computer in the office.  It serves as a reminder of the real source of our blessings and the example Jesus has set for our lives.  He also gave me a message about all the words spoken in Gods name and think of that when looking at this cross.  That however is not what it represents to me.  When I look at the cross I see a simple but beautiful cross.  One that represents the gift of woodworking at his hands, the examples of all the people in our church that have made this world better, and the challenge we have to be more like Jesus. 
    You see I have been lucky to have so many examples of what a christian is that mere words are pale in comparison.  I am glad that that cross has a place in my life.  Let us all remember this Easter season of all that Jesus has given us and what all Christians have done before us.  Then we will understand how to be an example for all that will follow. 
   It is the compassion for our fellow man that we have learned from them that grows in us to work with FRB and many others.  We hope that our examples bear the same fruit that grows inside us as faith.  Most of all we hope for a better world to live in, Jesus died for our sins on that cross, but lives within us.  Let us remember to be an example of his love.

                                                                                                     Serving together, Dean Lundeen

Are lower corn prices bad?

Corn Chart for December 2013 Chicago Board of Trade

Above chart shows a drop from $6.50 to $5.50 is this bad for the corn farmer?

    Last years crop was reduced by bad weather driving up the prices.  With high prices some users reduce the amount of corn they purchase.  Livestock feeders have been losing money as sale prices of market animals have not increased in relationship to the corn expense in their feed.  Ethanol plants have reduced production.  If the corn users are not covering expenses they go out of business or reduce production.  Demand begins to fall.  Consider what the corn producer needs.  If he decides his cost of production is $1000 per acre he needs 220 bu at $4.54, 200 bu at $5.00, 180 bu. at $5.50, 160 bu. at $6.25, or 140 bu. at $7.14.  I would rather produce 220 bu. per acre with great weather than get $7.14 with poor weather.  I want corn users to make money, who doesn't want to keep their customers happy.  I know that the Beef herds are as small as ever and they have a challenge to rebuild.  High costs only will delay that rebuilding and the longer corn stays high the fewer corn bushels feed. 

     So what is the price in December going to be?  That depends greatly on the weather conditions this summer. Some are talking about the return of $4.00 corn.  I think the demand has not fallen that far and with great production we can get our users back.  If oil prices stay high there would be an opportunity to increase the blend of ethanol in gasoline, exports would increase, and feed usage could begin to build.  My concerns are more that although the soil moisture has began to rebuild, it still has a way to go.  Corn has been taking over cotton acres and those acres are subject to high temperatures that may limit yields on some years.  

      $5.50 prices are not bad after all.  Don't pray for high prices because they come with a real price.

How are we going to feed the world if our grain is expensive?  Pray for good weather and a fair price.

                                                                            Serving together, Dean



So God made a farm wife

   "So God made a farmer", recorded  by Paul Harvey in 1978 has been remade into a Superbowl ad. and received a lot of support from the ag community for accurately describing farm life.  You can watch it here
http://samluce.com/2013/02/so-god-made-a-farmer-by-paul-harvey/
click on video to play, or also lyrics are printed out for you.
   For the Paul Harvey followers like me you know that there is always a page 2.  The rest of the story.

    My rest of the story is "So God made a farm wife".  See if you agree and add your own experiences.

    On the 9th day God looked down and said this is too much for one man to bear, So God made a farm wife.
     I need someone who will take care of the lamb that the farmer has just brought into the freshly waxed kitchen floor because on a cold dark night the mother has abandoned it and rush to grab the new bath towel to dry and warm it up in front of the stove, feeding it with the babies bottle every two hours and take care of it as if it was her own. So God made a farm wife.
    I need someone who works side by side with that farmer planting, weeding, or harvesting because she knows that the farmer will not rest until work is done and the good weather may break at any moment.  All the time caring for the family, driving children to band, baseball, or 4H.  So God made a farm wife.
    I need someone who when the weather takes that farmers crop and the farmer has no idea where the money will come from, will greet the farmer at the door with fresh bread on the counter, a pie in the oven,
give him a hug with the same look in her eye as their wedding day.  So God made a farm wife.
    I need someone who can feed a crew of neighbors that stoped to help, not knowing how many or at what time they will stop working, a meal that rivals any 5 star restaurant.  So God made a farm wife.
    I need someone who can do the books, wean the pigs, load the semi, drive the tractor, plant the garden, cook the meal, clean the house, read nighttime stories to the kids, check for head lice at the school, and when she goes to town and her friends say how hard her husband works will nod and say yes. So God made a farm wife.


    This is for all the farm wives out there.   Happy valentines day to my wife Cindy.


                                                                                                  Serving together, Dean